Someone please calm my fears... even just a little?

[jessm78.livejournal.com]

Ever since 2003, I've been an avid visitor of the website Freerepublic.com. Never joined but I lurked there and they put my fears to rest back in 2004 when the exit polls all showed John Kerry winning at first.

Now I'm over there and most of them are all harping on the fact that Obama is ahead in today's Rassmussen poll, I think 2 points ahead of Romney (although the internals don't make sense in that they're saying Romney is ahead with women while Obama is ahead with men; plus he's assuming Dems will have a bigger turnout this time... huh?). They're all saying what an awful candidate Romney is, that he'll be just like McCain and Dole in the debates, that this country is too busy loving their new "Obamaphones" and want government to take care of them and they'll all just reelect him.

This is seriously freaking me out. I just cannot think of 4 more years of Obama considering how bad things are. I know the media likes to demoralize us into not voting, a lot of the polls oversample Democrats, etc.

Yes, I know this country is vastly different now from the way it was even 20 years ago. And I know that the die-hard Obama fans will stick with him. But I'd like to think that the average Joe is a little concerned about the way things are going to want change.

I'm really worried for my future and that of my family and friends if this guy ends up being reelected. Someone please calm my fears before I slit my wrists. :(

Comments

[ladyrogue79.livejournal.com]

I talked to my sister about the polls, and yes, it's mainly a bunch of fake outs thanks to the media. Not to mention that Romney was up in states that are normally more liberal such as Colorado and Nevada. Also there's still the University of Colorado's election prediction that Romney will win (remember, they correctly predicted the last 8 presidents). So it's not over yet and a lot of GOP volunteers have been working to make sure that Obama will not happen again.

[jessm78.livejournal.com]

Thanks for talking me down off the ledge, so to speak (lol). I managed to find polls showing that info on CO and NV, so that's good. And while I found an article that said someone in Las Vegas is predicting a Romney win (not sure of the background on that and if he's reliable) I stumbled upon an article about the U of Colorado's prediction. It sounds like they have a good track record, so I'm feeling a little better. :)

I've heard that Obama has been surging on InTrade, but they're hardly reliable (didn't they point to Obamacare being overturned by the Supreme Court? We see how that turned out...).

[pat-t.livejournal.com]

Not to mention that we've seen Mitt in debates and he's actually very good. Also, he doesn't have that insane dictate that no one put Obama down. Paul Ryan did just that at the convention. I've seen coverage of Mitt's campaign and he's drawing in crowds unlike anything Obama is doing this time around. They can't call his running mate stupid names which scared off many independents when it came to Sarah Palin

I know I don't have hard proof, but I believe the polls are trying to shape opinion rather than express public opinion. I know Rassmussen can be trusted, but they are neck and neck in the polls. Just remember the exit polls recently in Wisconsin. The press had Scott Brown losing that all along. Then it was too close to call all night. But he won handily. Many people in unions aren't answering these polls honestly for a host of reasons. One such person called Rush explaining that she didn't know if the pollster was tied to the union and didn't want to take a chance.

Have faith. I live in a red state anyway, but I know back in 2008 there were cars and signs everywhere about Obama. And I haven't seen a single one this time. I have seen Romney bumper stickers.

[jessm78.livejournal.com]

Very good point. I am looking forward to the debates. That's true and one thing that I appreciate about him over McCain (drove me nuts when he actually said "we have nothing to fear from a President Obama" last time).

I think you're right, especially this far out. The media is trying to demoralize people (especially our side) into thinking Obama is going to win anyway and we should all just stay home. I've heard that Republicans have an enthusiasm advantage and a slight edge in voter identification. Hopefully that will help. And thanks for reminding me of the Wisconsin exit polls.

Thanks for the encouragement. :)

[pat-t.livejournal.com]

Let me add, and this is not pointed at you, but I've been quite concerned about Republicans lack of enthusiasm. No wonder the media thinks Obama has it in the bag. All you see on tv (even from our side) is what Romney has either done wrong or what he needs to do. No one on our side is fighting back when the media says Romney is committing a gaf when he clearly isn't. There aren't any cheers or enthusiasm at all. We're all sitting around whimpering about Romney and no one is cheering him on. There is a reason teams have cheerleaders to get the crowd invested in the game. The players need the cheers and hurrahs from the crowd. We're flopping around like fish out of water. Why aren't we talking up Mitt to ourselves and our friends? Why aren't we more cheerful about the prospect of getting him in the White House and a more positive future? If he's lecturing to a bored and disinterested crowd, no wonder Obama is winning.

[jessm78.livejournal.com]

Honestly, that's got me concerned as well. I really want to do something personally about this. I live in a hopelessly blue state, but I have tried talking to people and getting them to come around. I have a neighbor who's in his 70s and is a veteran. He was always a union democrat guy. I've talked to him about Obama and he now despises him and won't be voting for him this time around. His wife sadly is a diehard liberal who has voted dem all her life and seems gung ho about Obamacare. She's really stubborn and there's no changing her mind. They've actually made a pact not to discuss politics with each other.

My mom is 66 and has an old friend who's around the same age and was always fairly apolitical. During a recent phone call, they somehow got talking about politics and her friend said she doesn't care for either Romney or Obama. She said she hasn't seen Romney lay out any plan and then said that Ryan "scares" her because he'll cut Medicare. This is a woman who reads our local liberal newspaper religiously and watches the alphabet networks, so I guess it's no surprise she buys into this. My mom tried to give her the facts and they pretty much ended that topic. I almost wish I had that conversation with her - you can bet I'd talk up Mitt and set her straight on the media's fallacies.

[pat-t.livejournal.com]

Definitely, the die-hards don't want to hear the facts. We would be wasting our breath. But there are people out there that can be convinced. And there is nothing like someones unbridled enthusiasm to get them interested.

[lazypadawan.livejournal.com]

Ah yes, the circular firing squad.

I've had it with both "conservative" pundits and party establishment types. I've had it with the cut-your-nose-off guys who call everyone who's not up to their standards a RINO. The American right is a freakin' disaster. They are not good at being a united front. They quickly leave their wounded while Democrats will shamelessly defend their own even if it's a dirtbag. They're horribly insecure and I don't think it helps that so many of our yakkers live in the NYC-DC corridor. Too many of them have no real sense of how most Americans live and they worry about their left-wing colleagues letting them sit at the cool kids' table. They're spiteful too.

If Obama is as bad as they say he is, and I actually think he's a lot worse, then they should be throwing everything they have behind Romney. I'm not saying the Romney campaign has not made mistakes but every campaign does. Republicans have won in the past but generally not with the help of these people. Pretty much in spite of them.

[jessm78.livejournal.com]

THIS. So much.

It's one reason I've become really annoyed with FreeRepublic. There are a lot of people there who are exactly that way, the "purists" who post childish rants because they didn't get their way in the primaries. They go on and on about how they're voting for Virgil Goode or any of those other candidates whose names escape me. And then there are those who insist they'll write in Sarah Palin. What good does that do apart from hurting the guy we should get behind if we want to defeat Obama?

I remember some people acting this way in 2008 (though McCain really wasn't a good candidate and we didn't really know the full extent of the damage Obama would wreak on this country). All they did was talk about a matter of principle and how if Obama wins, we can regroup and come out stronger in 2012. Some of the same people are doing this now, guess they haven't learned from last time. You're right - the Romney campaign isn't perfect, no campaign really is. Though I think to compare his to McCain's or even Dole's (as some people online have done) is a little crazy.

Anyway, yeah, the Beltway types really annoy me, too. I've even given up watching much of Fox News lately. One of the last times I tuned in, even Brit Hume was acting like it was all over and Obama's reelection was in the bag.

[cutelildrow.livejournal.com]

I don't have the time to look up if this list is remotely true (he does cite links) but, this is a reminder, perhaps, of what you are voting against.

http://ibloga.blogspot.com/2012/09/obama-first.html


(also I don't live in the US and have been avoiding the election news - what little I see gets me annoyed and my blood pressure is up high already. ~_~; )

I'm afraid regarding the elections, I can only hope the convservative base will quietly sneak the election away by majority vote but without speaking their intentions. One can hope.

[jessm78.livejournal.com]

Thanks for the link. Wow, what a list. I'm going to bookmark this and present it to anyone who is still intent on staying home or writing in/voting for a 3rd party candidate. Just to remind them what's at stake here.

And yes, I definitely share your hope.

[kelincihutan.livejournal.com]

This I am not concerned about. Right-leaning voters vote more consistently and in greater numbers than left-leaning ones. We vote in special elections, we vote in mid-terms, we vote in recalls, etc., etc., etc. Everybody votes in Presidential elections, so I'm not saying Romney has it in the bag. I am saying that right-leaning voters do not "just stay home." And this is in contrast to left-leaning voters who have been known to do exactly that when their candidate has pissed them off.

I know a lot of people who will be holding their nose when they vote for Romney. I'm one of them. But they'll vote, and so will I.

[jenny-wildcat.livejournal.com]

This post over at HillBuzz today has me VERY heartened! These are people lining up in Toledo, Ohio to see Romney speak compared to the few people that showed up to protest --> http://hillbuzz.org/take-that-eeyores-29487

Even knowing that the polls are all rigged to show Obama ahead and that all the MSM does is cheerlead for Teh Won, it is hard to keep a positive outlook all the time. I have been on an emotional roller coaster this past month and I'm sure it's going to get worse through until Nov. 6. My predominant thought is that everything is going to be fine and regular people see through all the nonsense that the media is trying to sell us. It's okay to be disheartened once in a while, but I really believe that most Americans are paying attention and they're going to make the right decision. The Obots and the media will shriek and whine to their little hearts' desires, but WE are what's going to put us back on track.

[jessm78.livejournal.com]

Thank you so much for the link! I feel a lot better now. :) Wow, how long exactly is that line? And in Toledo of all places?

That basically describes my mood the past month, too. Ever since the media breathlessly declaring that 0bama had a convention bounce. I admit there were times I felt this way back in 2004 with some of the polls showing Kerry ahead. I even had bad dreams about Kerry being President and we were having more terrorist attacks. But we all know that turned out differently, thank goodness.

I remember reading an article the other day showing that a majority of Americans don't trust the media. Keeping that in mind makes me feel a little better, too. Here's hoping the media eat crow - lots of it - the night of Nov. 6th.

[kharmii.livejournal.com]

I thought it was irresponsible of the media, the way they've basically been calling this election in favor of Obama. Seriously, they are even going so far as to say it's given that Obama will win swings states like Ohio and Florida, and even conservative strongholds like Texas. I asked my parents if they've ever seen anything like this in past elections. Was it like this with Bush and Kerry? My mom said that the last time she remembers, the media was saying that Carter was guaranteed to win against Reagan, which is strange because that turned out to be a landslide in favor of Reagan.

I wonder...now I know Romney is no Reagan, but was Reagan really that popular before or after he got elected? Also, I'm wondering if the economy was as crappy under Carter as it is now. My folks couldn't help me with that because they both were teenagers living at home during Carter, and said you can't really tell how the economy affects you unless you are out paying your own bills. Another thing to consider: Were there more or less people taking welfare under Carter? Hopefully now, there are less people taking Obamaphones than there are people sick of that crap.

[jessm78.livejournal.com]

It seems like the media has just gotten worse, ever since 2000 when they called Florida for Gore before voting even ended there in the panhandle (which would have gone big for Bush). Seems people there just decided not to vote, thinking it was already Gore's. Then I remember in 2004 when they'd call states for Kerry when there was only a small percentage of the votes in - while states that had 99% and showed a big lead for Bush were still "too close to call." Even on Fox News (although to me Brit Hume looked a little po'd and wearied to have to follow that). Yeah, I was only 2 and a half during the 1980 election lol, but I've read about how the media pushed Carter winning up until almost the last few weeks before the election. Also, in 1988 Dukakis had about a 17% lead over Bush leading up to the debates.

I've read that Reagan wasn't really taken very seriously by voters at first ... the whole thing about him being an actor, etc. I think things started to change a little during the debates when Reagan asked "are you better off now than you were 4 years ago" and the whole "there you go again" exchange with Carter. I think Reagan was still down after that, but seems voters really took a look at both men and realized that they just couldn't live under Carter's crap anymore. Hopefully the same thing will happen this time around.

[marycatelli]

They think they are entitled to control the conversation.

[jessm78.livejournal.com]

Absolutely. It's disgusting.

[lazypadawan.livejournal.com]

I don't think there has never been a poll that has shown a Republican first-timer ahead by significant percentage points leading up to an election. At least not since the '70s. Models always bet on a higher Democratic turnout. Plus, if you ask me, many pollsters want to help Obama by encouraging turnout or by making it seem inevitable he's going to win, so fence-sitters should just throw in with the incumbent. Others want to present a horse race because that's more exciting to report.

There's just not the enthusiasm or sense of inevitability for Obama this time and I think everyone knows it. You could argue the circular firing squad might be hurting Romney a bit, but I think non-pundits and non-party hacks realize it's imperative to get Obama out. They're not looking for a miracle worker, just a guy who can stop the damage.

[jessm78.livejournal.com]

I think you're probably right. I even remember some of the polls from 2000 not really showing Bush ahead - wasn't it mostly a dead heat or Gore up by a couple of points? I was thinking about that and wondering if it would ever have the opposite effect - the pollsters making it look like Obama would win anyway, leaving the Obamanites to not worry about voting and staying home.

Yeah, I really don't see as many Obama bumper stickers this time around - even here in deep blue NY. People don't really seem as enthused about him as they did back in 2008. Instead I see more of a "buyer's remorse" and hearing about people who voted for him last time adamant about voting for Romney. It also sounds like none of the McCain voters last time will switch over to vote Obama. I remember in 2004 hearing that Bush voters in 2000 were suddenly deciding to vote for Kerry (and we know what good that did...heh).

[foodsthatcan.livejournal.com]

If the relative dearth of Obama bumper stickers is any indication, Democrat voter enthusiasm in Los Angeles is way down. Back in 2008, posters and bumper stickers were EVERYWHERE.

[sreya.livejournal.com]

Well, when you get pollsters coming to the door who respond to an answer that you're voting for Romney with "You don't care he's going to ruin the country?" ... um, I kind of don't trust the polls right now. LOL (Seriously, I had a guy do that to me.)

[kelincihutan.livejournal.com]

Wow. I think I might've shut the door in that guy's face.

[sreya.livejournal.com]

I was pretty proud of myself for continuing to be nice and polite. Although I'll admit I skirted the lines of legality a little bit by admitting I'm privy to information in my job that has certainly shaped my opinions. But basically I drove home my point that even on the couple of "good" points the guy brought up, like the immigration executive orders that Obama had implemented them illegally by going around Congress and it would only hurt that cause in the future anyway. So I'd rather give the other guy a chance.

I honestly don't think he knew what to do with me. LOL

[jessm78.livejournal.com]

A guy actually said that?! I can't stand these push polls/pollsters. I haven't had the luxury of having any of them at my door or on my phone (can usually tell when it's a pollster by the caller ID). I know I'd get seriously ticked off with them. I read somewhere about a guy getting a call from a push poll and the caller was really propping up Obama. The guy gave her all sorts of facts about the things Obama has done and she answered every single one of them with "That's your opinion."

[sreya.livejournal.com]

D'oh! There you going, mixing up those facts and opinions again. After all, don't you know only the Democrats can define facts?

[jessm78.livejournal.com]

Oops, yup, there I go with those troublesome facts... Sorry, liberals, won't happen again! ;)

[cutelildrow.livejournal.com]

I bet you that they wouldn't report accurate polls anyway, not with that mindset.